Extremely interesting, and food for thought in terms of the right’s push for family growth, and the decrease in productive workers giving way to increase in robotics and AI. Always two sides to every coin.
Population contraction means the contraction of everything other than perhaps monetary contraction since labour replacing technology is the only feasible answer even if expectations are not reached.
So robotics, industrial automation, edge AI, harness AI, agentic AI, hyperscale compute, electricity, grid infrastructure, gas, nuclear, renewables, battery storage, water or nonwater cooling systems, software and AI engineers and technicians, construction, grid build out and management. More of it automated the better.
Who pays for it? Debt, bonds, wages, profits, quantitative easing, inflation, interest rates.
What does it require? Oil, coal, gas, metals, rare earths, minerals, all of which, in the aggregate, are of diminishing qualities, requiring more energy and complexity to process, which takes a greater and greater share of debt, bonds, wages, profits, quantitative easing, inflation, interest rates.
So eroding energy/material return on energy/material invested cuts into technological development and productivity.
However technological development and productivity will be pursued nevertheless so the market will reward the stocks that pursue and unravel the demographic trap even if the endeavour is ultimately in vain.
Magnificent piece of writing. Thank you!
This is the most thoughtful and thorough examination of economic and demographic and environmental trends I’ve ever read.
I am unable to comment on an article this masterful, as doing so would require an article of the same length. Best I can do is restack it.
Extremely interesting, and food for thought in terms of the right’s push for family growth, and the decrease in productive workers giving way to increase in robotics and AI. Always two sides to every coin.
Completely absorbing at 7:30 am EDT. I have coached my one and only daughter not to have children. I’m sorry? I’m glad? I have no idea anymore.
Fascinating. Fave part was from baby to adult diapers.
Very interesting 😊
Population contraction means the contraction of everything other than perhaps monetary contraction since labour replacing technology is the only feasible answer even if expectations are not reached.
So robotics, industrial automation, edge AI, harness AI, agentic AI, hyperscale compute, electricity, grid infrastructure, gas, nuclear, renewables, battery storage, water or nonwater cooling systems, software and AI engineers and technicians, construction, grid build out and management. More of it automated the better.
Who pays for it? Debt, bonds, wages, profits, quantitative easing, inflation, interest rates.
What does it require? Oil, coal, gas, metals, rare earths, minerals, all of which, in the aggregate, are of diminishing qualities, requiring more energy and complexity to process, which takes a greater and greater share of debt, bonds, wages, profits, quantitative easing, inflation, interest rates.
So eroding energy/material return on energy/material invested cuts into technological development and productivity.
However technological development and productivity will be pursued nevertheless so the market will reward the stocks that pursue and unravel the demographic trap even if the endeavour is ultimately in vain.